Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,966
2 New Jersey 20,024
3 Louisiana 17,671
4 Arizona 17,602
5 Rhode Island 16,602
6 Massachusetts 16,268
7 District of Columbia 15,509
8 Florida 13,577
9 Connecticut 13,331
10 Delaware 13,318
11 Mississippi 12,614
12 Illinois 12,394
13 Maryland 12,378
14 South Carolina 11,728
15 Alabama 11,677
16 Iowa 11,391
17 Nebraska 11,226
18 Georgia 10,791
19 Arkansas 9,852
20 Texas 9,816
21 Nevada 9,632
22 Utah 9,599
23 Tennessee 9,578
24 California 8,771
25 North Carolina 8,568
26 South Dakota 8,559
27 Virginia 8,487
28 Indiana 8,021
29 Pennsylvania 7,917
30 Michigan 7,814
31 Minnesota 7,661
32 New Mexico 7,398
33 Wisconsin 7,130
34 Kansas 6,984
35 Idaho 6,693
36 Colorado 6,557
37 North Dakota 5,901
38 Ohio 5,816
39 Washington 5,811
40 Oklahoma 5,493
41 Missouri 5,021
42 Kentucky 4,633
43 New Hampshire 4,479
44 Wyoming 3,371
45 Puerto Rico 3,169
46 Oregon 3,037
47 Maine 2,652
48 Alaska 2,593
49 West Virginia 2,459
50 Vermont 2,091
51 Montana 1,906
52 Hawaii 877

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 576
2 Louisiana 375
3 Arizona 372
4 South Carolina 368
5 Alabama 360
6 Texas 303
7 Nevada 298
8 Tennessee 265
9 Idaho 257
10 Georgia 251
11 Mississippi 237
12 California 224
13 Arkansas 206
14 North Carolina 183
15 Utah 177
16 Oklahoma 165
17 Kansas 156
18 Wisconsin 138
19 Iowa 131
20 Washington 128
21 Missouri 117
22 Nebraska 117
23 New Mexico 117
24 Montana 112
25 Alaska 109
26 North Dakota 109
27 Ohio 107
28 Virginia 103
29 Maryland 97
30 Minnesota 94
31 Kentucky 87
32 Rhode Island 86
33 Indiana 81
34 Puerto Rico 79
35 Delaware 77
36 Oregon 75
37 District of Columbia 68
38 Illinois 66
39 Colorado 65
40 Wyoming 64
41 Pennsylvania 54
42 Michigan 51
43 West Virginia 48
44 South Dakota 44
45 New York 36
46 Massachusetts 35
47 New Jersey 35
48 Connecticut 22
49 New Hampshire 16
50 Hawaii 14
51 Maine 11
52 Vermont 11

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,754
2 New York 1,649
3 Connecticut 1,226
4 Massachusetts 1,210
5 Rhode Island 929
6 District of Columbia 804
7 Louisiana 741
8 Michigan 633
9 Illinois 585
10 Maryland 551
11 Pennsylvania 544
12 Delaware 531
13 Mississippi 427
14 Indiana 412
15 Arizona 321
16 Colorado 301
17 New Hampshire 288
18 Georgia 282
19 Minnesota 274
20 New Mexico 262
21 Ohio 262
22 Iowa 240
23 Alabama 237
24 Virginia 231
25 Florida 205
26 Nevada 199
27 South Carolina 192
28 Washington 192
29 Missouri 185
30 California 182
31 Nebraska 154
32 North Carolina 150
33 Kentucky 148
34 Wisconsin 143
35 South Dakota 123
36 North Dakota 120
37 Texas 118
38 Tennessee 110
39 Arkansas 109
40 Oklahoma 108
41 Kansas 104
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 84
44 Utah 70
45 Oregon 58
46 Idaho 57
47 West Virginia 54
48 Puerto Rico 52
49 Wyoming 38
50 Montana 31
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 14

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 8
2 Mississippi 4
3 Alabama 3
4 Florida 3
5 Louisiana 3
6 Connecticut 2
7 Nevada 2
8 New Jersey 2
9 Rhode Island 2
10 South Carolina 2
11 Texas 2
12 Arkansas 1
13 California 1
14 Georgia 1
15 Illinois 1
16 Iowa 1
17 Kansas 1
18 Kentucky 1
19 Maryland 1
20 Massachusetts 1
21 Missouri 1
22 Montana 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 New York 1
25 North Carolina 1
26 Tennessee 1
27 Utah 1
28 Washington 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Colorado 0
31 Delaware 0
32 District of Columbia 0
33 Hawaii 0
34 Idaho 0
35 Indiana 0
36 Maine 0
37 Michigan 0
38 Minnesota 0
39 Nebraska 0
40 New Hampshire 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Ohio 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 134,084 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,202 2 99
Lee Arkansas 95,969 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 92,829 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 88,583 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 22,291 123 96
Richland South Carolina 12,577 425 86
Orange California 8,225 786 74
York South Carolina 7,079 921 70
Pierce Washington 4,088 1516 51

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 238 676 78
Davidson Tennessee 223 709 77
Orange California 136 992 68
Pierce Washington 126 1035 67
York South Carolina 46 1654 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons